How is COVID-19 Related to the Global Economy?
1Abdulelah Almuqrin and ,2Feifei Wang
1Niagara University, College of Business Administration, Bisgrove Hall
Corresponding AuthorNiagara University, College of Business Administration, Bisgrove Hall

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Using a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) model, this paper attempts to investigate the short-run interrelation between COVID-19 cases, the gold market, the oil market, the global stock market, and the real economy. We find that COVID-19 cases respond predominantly to its own innovations while the crude oil market, the gold market, and global stock returns are interrelated in the short-run. The industrial production index, the price of crude oil, and the price of gold account for approximately 22.64%, 9.5%, and 13.74% of the variations in global stock returns, respectively. Global COVID-19 cases can explain about 6.022% of the variance of the U.S. industrial production index of the 30-day ahead forecast error.


COVID-19; Commodity markets; Stock returns; Real economy.


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